Berawa Rental Yield 2026: What a 1-Bed Villa Earns

A one-bedroom private-pool villa in Berawa should be underwritten at $9,000 to $15,600 net per year on a $130,000 purchase — a 7% to 12% net yield. The 12% figure quoted across this market, including on our own site, is the top of that range, not the middle of it.

This article shows the full arithmetic, the independent platform data that argues against the optimistic end, and a sensitivity table so you can price the downside yourself.

The projection, itemised

Berawa Private Suite's published one-bedroom is 65 m² built on 52.5 m² of land, sold fully furnished at $130,000 on a 30-year Hak Sewa leasehold. Our published rental model assumes $150 per night at 62% of the calendar year — 226 booked nights — for $34,000 gross.

Gross is not income. Here is every deduction:

Table 1 — One-bedroom suite: gross to net (annual)

Line	% of gross	Amount
Gross booking revenue	100%	$34,000
Less: management fee	20%	−$6,800
Less: platform & booking fees	12%	−$4,080
Less: utilities, staff & upkeep	12%	−$4,080
Less: rental tax allowance	10%	−$3,400
Net to owner	46%	$15,640
Net yield on $130,000		12.0%
Simple payback		8.3 years

Note the ratio: net is 46% of gross. A villa marketed as producing a "26% return" on $34,000 of bookings is quoting gross. The same asset produces 12% net. Conflating the two is the most common distortion in Bali property marketing, and it roughly doubles the apparent return.

For reference, the two-bedroom suite (80 m², $168,000 — unit 6, now sold) carried a $195 × 64% assumption for $45,500 gross and $20,930 net — 12.5% net, 8.0-year payback. The full unit-by-unit model is published on the Berawa Private Suite project page.

Berawa rental yield against the Canggu market data

This is the part most developers leave out.

AirROI tracks roughly 3,920 active short-term rental listings in Canggu. For the twelve months to July 2026 (report updated 1 August 2026), it reports:

Table 2 — Our assumptions against the Canggu market

Metric	Berawa Private Suite 1BR (projected)	Canggu market (AirROI, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026)
Gross annual revenue	$34,000	$21,244 average · $18,624 median
Average nightly rate (ADR)	$150	$214 average · $126 median
Booked nights per year	226	~99 (derived: $21,244 ÷ $214)
Occupancy	62% of 365 nights	36.2% of available nights
Active listings in market	—	3,920
Revenue change year-on-year	—	−23.1%

Source: AirROI, Canggu. Booked nights are our arithmetic on AirROI's published revenue and ADR, not an AirROI figure.

Two things need saying plainly.

First, the occupancy percentages are not comparable, and nobody in this market tells you that. AirROI defines occupancy as booked nights ÷ available nights, explicitly excluding nights an owner blocks for personal use or maintenance. Our 62% is booked nights ÷ all 365 calendar nights. Comparing 62% to 36.2% directly — as several competing articles do — is meaningless. The honest comparison is on booked nights and gross revenue, which is why Table 2 shows both.

On a genuine like-for-like basis — a unit made available every night of the year — the projection implies roughly 1.7× the market-average occupancy rate. That is the single load-bearing assumption in the entire model.

Second, the trend is negative. Canggu revenue per listing is down 23.1% year-on-year. Meanwhile BPS-Statistics Indonesia recorded Bali foreign arrivals of 1,466,546 in Q1 2026, up just 1.04% on Q1 2025's 1,451,445, and April 2026 arrivals of 553,328 were down 6.41% year-on-year. Full-year 2025 arrivals were 6,948,754, up 9.72% on 2024.

Flat-to-negative demand against sharply falling revenue per listing points to one explanation: supply is growing faster than demand, and the per-unit share of a roughly fixed pool of visitors is shrinking. That is an inference, not a measurement — AirROI publishes the current Canggu listing count of 3,920 but not the count twelve months earlier, so we cannot evidence supply growth directly. The revenue decline is the measured fact; the supply explanation is our reading of it.

Where the projection sits in the distribution

The cleanest way to test a yield claim is to ask what percentile of the market it requires.

Table 3 — Canggu gross revenue percentiles, and implied net yield on a $130,000 unit

Percentile band	Gross annual revenue	Net at 46%	Net yield on $130,000	Payback
Top 10% threshold	$77,832+	$35,803	27.5%	3.6 yrs
Top 25% threshold	$42,744+	$19,662	15.1%	6.6 yrs
Our 1BR projection	$34,000	$15,640	12.0%	8.3 yrs
Market average	$21,244	$9,772	7.5%	13.3 yrs
Median listing	$18,624	$8,567	6.6%	15.2 yrs
Bottom 25% threshold	$6,288	$2,892	2.2%	44.9 yrs

Percentile revenue data: AirROI, Canggu. Net and yield columns apply our 46% net factor to those gross figures for comparability — note this understates net for a self-managed owner, who would not pay the 20% management fee.

Read the middle of that table carefully. Our $34,000 projection sits above Canggu's median listing and below its top-quartile threshold. In plain terms, the villa must finish in the upper half of the Canggu market — but it does not need to reach the top 25% — for the model to hold.

That is a demanding target. It is not an absurd one.

The honest case for outperforming the average

The market average is a weak comparator in one specific, defensible way: it is an average across 3,920 listings of every type, size, age and management standard. A median nightly rate of $126 in a market whose average is $214 tells you the distribution is full of rooms, apartments and small units without private pools. The bottom quartile grosses $6,288 a year — those are not competing for the same guest.

Four arguments for a new-build, professionally managed one-bedroom outperforming that average, in descending order of how much weight they can bear:

1. Full-time availability. Working from AirROI's own figures, the average Canggu listing books ~99 nights at 36.2% of available nights, implying roughly 274 nights available and around 91 nights blocked per year. A pure investment unit under third-party management is never blocked for owner use. That closes part of the gap, and it is the most reliable of the four arguments.
2. Deliberately below-market pricing. The model assumes $150 — well under the $214 market average and only modestly above the $126 median. It is a volume-over-rate strategy. Buying occupancy with rate is the most controllable lever an operator has.
3. Product-to-segment fit. A one-bedroom with a private pool targets couples, the deepest and least seasonal demand segment in Canggu. It is also the cheapest product to fill: one bedroom needs one booking.
4. New stock at handover. Estimated completion is July 2027. New build, current photography, no deferred maintenance.

And the arguments against, which a buyer should weigh at least as heavily:

• The trend is the trend. A 23.1% revenue decline is not a rounding error. If it continues to 2027 handover, every figure in this article moves down and the 12% case disappears.
• Year one is not steady state. A brand-new listing has no review history and no ranking. Our own operating expectation is a ramp, not day-one stabilisation. Treat the first twelve months as below the model.
• We are the seller. Kaluna Development built and is selling this project. The projection is ours. That is precisely why the assumptions are itemised rather than summarised into a single number — so they can be argued with.

Our position, stated plainly: 12% is the upside case, not the base case. A buyer should underwrite this asset on the $150 / 55% scenario — around 10.7% net — and stress-test it against the market-average scenario at roughly 7%. If the investment only works at 12%, it does not work.

Sensitivity: what the villa earns if the assumptions are wrong

Everything below is calculated on the same $130,000 purchase price and the same 46% net factor from Table 1. Occupancy is expressed as a share of all 365 calendar nights.

Table 4 — Net yield on $130,000, by occupancy and nightly rate

Occupancy (of 365)	$120/night	$150/night	$180/night
45% (164 nights)	7.0%	8.7%	10.5%
55% (201 nights)	8.5%	10.7%	12.8%
62% (226 nights)	9.6%	12.0%	14.4%
70% (256 nights)	10.8%	13.6%	16.3%

Table 5 — Simple payback in years, same grid

Occupancy (of 365)	$120/night	$150/night	$180/night
45% (164 nights)	14.3	11.5	9.6
55% (201 nights)	11.7	9.4	7.8
62% (226 nights)	10.4	8.3	6.9
70% (256 nights)	9.2	7.4	6.1

Payback here is simple and undiscounted: purchase price ÷ annual net. It ignores the time value of money, any rate escalation, and any capital appreciation or loss. On a 30-year leasehold, the remaining lease term shortens each year, so payback speed matters more than it would on freehold.

The useful observation from Table 4 is how much more the nightly rate matters than occupancy. Moving from $120 to $180 at fixed occupancy adds roughly 4.8 percentage points of yield. Moving from 45% to 70% at fixed rate adds roughly 3.8. Rate is set by product quality and positioning; occupancy is set by pricing and operations. Both are levers, and neither is guaranteed.

On tax

The 10% line in Table 1 is a rental tax allowance carried in our operating model. It is not a statement of Indonesian tax law and it is not your tax position.

Treatment for a non-resident foreign owner holding a leasehold interest depends on residency status, whether income is received personally or through a structure, and any applicable double-taxation treaty. It can differ materially from the allowance modelled here. Take advice from a licensed Indonesian tax adviser and from an adviser in your own jurisdiction before relying on any net figure in this article.

Disclaimer

Every figure in this article that describes Berawa Private Suite is a projection, not a guarantee. No rental return is contractually warranted. Berawa Private Suite is an offplan development with estimated handover in July 2027; conditions at handover are unknown, and the most recent independent data for the Canggu market is negative. Third-party figures are attributed with their source and data period. This article is information, not investment, legal or tax advice.

Frequently asked questions

1. What is a realistic net rental yield for a one-bedroom villa in Berawa in 2026? Underwrite a range of roughly 7% to 12% net on purchase price, not a single number. The 12% figure requires around 226 booked nights at $150 — above the median Canggu listing but below the top quartile. A market-average outcome on the same $130,000 unit produces closer to 7.5%.

2. What is the difference between gross and net rental yield? Gross is total booking revenue before any cost. Net is what reaches your account after management, platform fees, operating costs and tax. On this model net is 46% of gross. Any advertised Bali yield that does not state which one it is should be treated as gross.

3. How much does the average Airbnb listing in Canggu actually earn? AirROI reports an average of $21,244 per listing per year across roughly 3,920 active Canggu listings, for the twelve months to July 2026. The median is $18,624 and the top-quartile threshold is $42,744. Those are gross figures before any deduction.

4. Is Canggu rental revenue rising or falling? Falling. AirROI reports revenue per listing down 23.1% year-on-year to July 2026, while BPS recorded Bali foreign arrivals up only 1.04% in Q1 2026 and down 6.41% year-on-year in April 2026. Demand is roughly flat while revenue per listing compresses.

5. Why compare a new villa to the market average if the average includes older stock? Because it is the only independent benchmark available, and the burden of proof sits with the developer. The average includes rooms, apartments and self-managed properties that are not comparable product — but a buyer should start from the market number and require a specific, checkable reason for any premium.

6. How many nights a year does the Berawa projection assume? 226 booked nights out of 365, at $150, for $34,000 gross. Derived from AirROI's published figures, the average Canggu listing sells around 99 nights per year at a $214 rate. The projection assumes roughly 2.3 times the booked nights of an average listing at a materially lower nightly rate.

7. Is the 62% occupancy assumption comparable to AirROI's 36.2%? Not directly, and this is where most Bali yield articles mislead. AirROI measures booked nights ÷ available nights, excluding owner-blocked nights. Our 62% is booked nights ÷ 365. On a like-for-like basis — available every night of the year — the projection still implies roughly 1.7× the market-average occupancy.

8. What happens if the villa only achieves 55% occupancy? At $150 per night and 55%, gross is $30,113 and net is $13,852 — a 10.7% net yield and a 9.4-year payback. At 45% and $120 per night, net falls to $9,067: a 7.0% yield and a 14.3-year payback.

9. Does the 10% rental tax deduction reflect what a foreign owner will actually pay? It is the allowance carried in our operating model, not a statement of your tax position. Treatment for a non-resident foreign owner depends on residency, structure and any applicable treaty, and can differ materially. Take advice from a licensed Indonesian tax adviser.

10. Are these projections guaranteed? No. They are projections based on an assumed nightly rate and occupancy, both stated openly so they can be challenged. Handover is estimated for July 2027, conditions at that point are unknown, and current trend data is negative. No rental return is contractually guaranteed.

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Sources

• AirROI — Canggu, Bali Airbnb Data. Period August 2025 – July 2026, report updated 1 August 2026.
• AirROI — Bali market comparison. Updated 1 August 2026.
• AirROI — Occupancy Rate definition.
• BPS-Statistics Indonesia Bali Province — Tourism Overview, March 2026.
• Bali Discovery — Foreign Tourist Arrivals Increase 1.4% in Q1 2026, reporting BPS via ANTARA, 5 May 2026.
• ANTARA News — Bali's foreign tourist arrivals rise nearly 10 pct in 2025, BPS says.
• Kaluna Development — Berawa Private Suite price list and yield model. Prices as of July 2026.